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A Project Is Not a Black Box Principles of Corporate Finance Seventh презентация, доклад

Содержание

Topics CoveredSensitivity AnalysisBreak Even AnalysisMonte Carlo SimulationDecision Trees

Слайды и текст этой презентации

Слайд 1A Project Is Not a Black Box
Principles of Corporate Finance

Seventh

Edition
Richard A. Brealey
Stewart C. Myers
Slides by
Matthew Will
Chapter 10
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright

© 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
A Project Is Not a Black BoxPrinciples of Corporate FinanceSeventh EditionRichard A. Brealey Stewart C. MyersSlides byMatthew

Слайд 2Topics Covered
Sensitivity Analysis
Break Even Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
Decision Trees

Topics CoveredSensitivity AnalysisBreak Even AnalysisMonte Carlo SimulationDecision Trees

Слайд 3How To Handle Uncertainty
Sensitivity Analysis - Analysis of the effects

of changes in sales, costs, etc. on a project.
Scenario Analysis

- Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions.
Simulation Analysis - Estimation of the probabilities of different possible outcomes.
Break Even Analysis - Analysis of the level of sales (or other variable) at which the company breaks even.
How To Handle UncertaintySensitivity Analysis - Analysis of the effects of changes in sales, costs, etc. on

Слайд 4Sensitivity Analysis
Example
Given the expected cash flow forecasts for Otobai Company’s

Motor Scooter project, listed on the next slide, determine the

NPV of the project given changes in the cash flow components using a 10% cost of capital. Assume that all variables remain constant, except the one you are changing.

Sensitivity AnalysisExample	Given the expected cash flow forecasts for Otobai Company’s Motor Scooter project, listed on the next

Слайд 5Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued
NPV= 3.43 billion Yen

Sensitivity AnalysisExample - continuedNPV= 3.43 billion Yen

Слайд 6Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued

Possible Outcomes

Sensitivity AnalysisExample - continued	Possible Outcomes

Слайд 7Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued
NPV Calculations for Optimistic Market Size Scenario
NPV=

+5.7 bil yen

Sensitivity AnalysisExample - continuedNPV Calculations for Optimistic Market Size Scenario	NPV= +5.7 bil yen

Слайд 8Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued

NPV Possibilities (Billions Yen)

Sensitivity AnalysisExample - continued	NPV Possibilities (Billions Yen)

Слайд 9Break Even Analysis
Point at which the NPV=0 is the break

even point
Otobai Motors has a breakeven point of 85,000 units

sold.

Sales, 000’s

PV (Yen)
Billions


400

200

19.6

85 200

Break even
NPV=0

PV Inflows

PV Outflows

Break Even AnalysisPoint at which the NPV=0 is the break even pointOtobai Motors has a breakeven point

Слайд 10Monte Carlo Simulation
Step 1: Modeling the Project
Step 2: Specifying Probabilities
Step

3: Simulate the Cash Flows
Modeling Process

Monte Carlo SimulationStep 1: Modeling the ProjectStep 2: Specifying ProbabilitiesStep 3: Simulate the Cash FlowsModeling Process

Слайд 11Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
+150(.6)

+30(.4)
+100(.6)


+50(.4)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)-550NPV=  ?-250NPV=  ?-150 0orTurbopropPiston

Слайд 12Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
+150(.6)

+30(.4)
+100(.6)


+50(.4)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812

456

660

364

148
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)-550NPV=  ?-250NPV=  ?-150 0or812456660364148TurbopropPiston

Слайд 13Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
+150(.6)

+30(.4)
+100(.6)


+50(.4)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812

456

660

364

148
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)-550NPV=  ?-250NPV=  ?-150 0or812456660364148TurbopropPiston

Слайд 14Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812

456

660

364

148
+150(.6)

+30(.4)
+100(.6)


+50(.4)
*450
331
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)-550NPV=  ?-250NPV=  ?-150 0or812456660364148+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)*450 331TurbopropPiston

Слайд 15Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812

456

660

364

148
+150(.6)

+30(.4)
+100(.6)


+50(.4)
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
*450
331
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)-550NPV=  ?-250NPV=  ?-150 0or812456660364148+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)NPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.55*450 331TurbopropPiston

Слайд 16Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
812

456

660

364

148
+150(.6)
710.73
+30(.4)
+100(.6)

403.82
+50(.4)
-150
0
*450
331
or
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)812456660364148+150(.6)710.73+30(.4)+100(.6)403.82+50(.4)-150 0*450 331orNPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.55-550NPV=  ?-250NPV=  ?TurbopropPiston

Слайд 17Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
812

456

660

364

148
+150(.6)
710.73
+30(.4)
+100(.6)

403.82
+50(.4)
-550
NPV=96.12
-250
NPV=117.00
-150
0
*450
331
or
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)812456660364148+150(.6)710.73+30(.4)+100(.6)403.82+50(.4)-550NPV=96.12-250NPV=117.00-150 0*450 331orNPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.55TurbopropPiston

Слайд 18Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
812

456

660

364

148
+150(.6)
710.73
+30(.4)
+100(.6)

403.82
+50(.4)
-550
NPV=96.12
-250
NPV=117.00
-150
0
*450
331
or
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
Turboprop
Piston

Decision Trees960 (.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)812456660364148+150(.6)710.73+30(.4)+100(.6)403.82+50(.4)-550NPV=96.12-250NPV=117.00-150 0*450 331orNPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.55TurbopropPiston

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