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Методы и Системы Поддержки Принятия Решений Methods and Systems for Decision
Содержание
- 1. Методы и Системы Поддержки Принятия Решений Methods and Systems for Decision
- 2. Л-4 /-Add СППРСистемы Поддержки Принятия РешенийDSSDecision Support Systems(Decision - Making Support Systems)
- 3. DSSs for the late 50 years:
- 4. DSSs for the late 50 years:
- 5. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 6. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 7. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 8. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 9. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 10. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 11. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 12. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 13. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 14. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 15. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 16. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 17. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 18. DSSs for the late 50 years: A
- 19. III – DSS -Defs ППР и
- 20. III – DSS -Defs Иерархически участвующие
- 21. III – DSS -Defs Def-1: “СППР
- 22. III – DSS -Defs Def-2: СППР
- 23. III – DSS -Defs Def-3: СППР
- 24. III – DSS -Defs Процесс ППР
- 25. III – DSS -Defs Существует согласие
- 26. III – DSS -Defs В качестве
- 27. Decision Support System (DSS) intelligence: design:
- 28. АР/ МСППР Процесс ПР (Г.Саймон): 1.
- 29. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentR&D expanded the field
- 30. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSS1971: Scott
- 31. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSSEarly versions
- 32. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSSThe 1st
- 33. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSS1983: Expert
- 34. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSS1978: Bricklin
- 35. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSS1988: Sharda,
- 36. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.1 Model-driven DSSSDSS (Spatial
- 37. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.2 Data-driven DSSData warehouse,
- 38. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.2 Data-driven DSSOne of
- 39. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.2 Data-driven DSS1970: Joyner
- 40. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.2 Data-driven DSS1999: W.
- 41. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.3 Communications-driven DSS:use network
- 42. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.3 Communications-driven DSS:1980s: academic
- 43. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.3 Communications-driven DSS:1988: Kraemer
- 44. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.3 Communications-driven DSS:1989: (Lotus
- 45. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.4 Document-driven DSS:Doc-driven DSSs
- 46. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.4 Document-driven DSS:1978: The
- 47. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.5 Knowledge-driven DSS:Knowledge-driven DSS:
- 48. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.5 Knowledge-driven DSS:1965: Stanford
- 49. IV. DSSs Applications DevelopmentIV.5 Knowledge-driven DSS:1981: Bonczek,
- 50. V. Web-based DSS1995: WWW/global Internet provided a
- 51. V. Web-based DSS1999: vendors introduced new Web-based
- 52. V. Web-based DSSWeb-based DSS:Power (1998) defined a
- 53. VI. Conclusions The Web has had a
- 54. VI. Conclusions Trends:Data-driven DSS will use faster,
- 55. The pioneers of DSSs list:DSSResources.com/history/pioneers/pioneerslist.html DSS pioneers
- 56. СППР по оценке и ликвидации последствий
- 57. СППР по оценке и ликвидации последствий
- 58. Participation in International Projectsmodels, risk assessments, Radiation
- 59. СППР по оценке и ликвидации последствий
- 60. DecernsSDSS2006-2009: Decerns SDSS := GIS+MCDA (soft) GIS functions MCDA Methods
- 61. DEMETRA DSS: Directions of R&DModelsKnowledgeBase DST,MCDADBs,GISDSSDSDSS, SDSS: After Simon (1960), Geoffrion (1983), Densham (1991):
- 62. Selected MC-SDSS (after J.Malczewski, 1999)
- 63. WebSDSS (after C.Rinner, 2003)
- 64. Thnx!Discussion…Questions !?Suggestions !?!
- 65. АР/МСППР: Роли субъектов в принятии решенийЧлен
- 66. Классификация проблемвсе проблемы подразделяются на три
- 67. Классификация проблемвсе проблемы подразделяются на три
- 68. Метод Кондорсе (оригинальный):
- 69. Классификация методов MCDA по природе решаемых задач
- 70. Методы (МГ) Метод Кондорсе (оригинальный):
- 71. Скачать презентанцию
Л-4 /-Add СППРСистемы Поддержки Принятия РешенийDSSDecision Support Systems(Decision - Making Support Systems)
Слайды и текст этой презентации
Слайд 2Л-4 /-Add
СППР
Системы Поддержки Принятия Решений
DSS
Decision Support Systems
(Decision - Making
Support Systems)
Слайд 3DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History .
I. Introduction
(1960s) beginning: model-driven DSS;
(1970s) theory developments;
(1980s) financial planning systems,
spreadsheet DSS;(1980-90s) Group DSS;
(1980-90s) Executive Information Systems, OLAP and Business Intelligence;
(1990-2000s) Knowledge-driven DSS;
(1990-2000s) Web-based DSS;
(1990-2000s) Spatial DSS /= GIS-DSS
+++ research and technology is continuing to evolve
Слайд 4DSSs for the late 50 years:
A Brief History
How
to cite:
Power D.J. A Brief History of Decision Support Systems.
DSS Resources. http://DSSResources.COM/history/dsshistory.html, version 4.0, March 10, 2007 
Слайд 5DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History II.
Origins
(1960s) beginning: model-driven DSS: computer quantitative models (IBM
7094) - to assist in DM/planning;a major historical turning point - Michael S. Scott Morton's (Feb 1964) dissertation (1967) (research at Harvard Univ);
(1971) MM studied how computers and analytical models could help managers make a recurring key business planning decision. He conducted an experiment in which managers actually used a Management Decision System (MDS). Marketing and production managers used an MDS to coordinate production planning for laundry equipment.
Слайд 6DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History
II.
Origins: The pioneering works: G.Dantzig, D.Engelbart, J.Forrester: influenced the feasibility
of building computerized DSS.1952: Dantzig- mathematician at the RAND Corp, began implementing linear programming on its experimental computer.
1960: Engelbart and colleagues developed the first hypermedia groupware system called NLS (oNLine System). NLS facilitated the creation of digital libraries and the storage and retrieval of electronic documents using hypertext. NLS also provided for on-screen video teleconferencing and was a forerunner to Group DSS.
1962: Forrester - building the SAGE (Semi-Automatic Ground Environment) air defense system for North America completed in.
SAGE is probably the first computerized data-driven DSS. Also, Forrester started the System Dynamics Group at the MIT . His work on corporate modeling led to programming DYNAMO, a general simulation compiler.
Слайд 7DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History
1960:
J.Licklider: published his ideas about the future role of multi-access
interactive computing in a paper (Man-Computer Symbiosis).1964: development of the IBM-360 and other more powerful mainframe systems made it practical and cost-effective developing Management Information Systems (MIS) for large companies.
Early MIS: providing managers with structured, periodic reports - accounting and transaction processing systems
(but the systems did not provide interactive support to assist managers in decision making)
Слайд 8DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History
1968:
S.Morton & McCosh & Stephens published decision support related articles.
~1970: journal articles on Management DS, strategic planning systems.
1971: The first use of the term DSS:
in Gorry and Scott-Morton’s Review article.
They argued that MIS primarily focused on structured decisions and suggested that the supporting information systems for semi-structured and unstructured decisions should be termed
Decision Support Systems - DSS
Слайд 9DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History
II.
Origins:
1971: T.Gerrity focused on DSS design, article "The Design of
Man-Machine Decision Systems: An Application to Portfolio Management“ –MIT Ph.D.,- J.Little, MIT, was studying DSS for marketing.
Little and Lodish reported research on MEDIAC, a media planning support system.
1970: Little – 4 criteria for designing model and MIS: robustness, ease of control, simplicity, and completeness of relevant detail.
All four criteria remain relevant in evaluating modern Decision Support Systems.
1975, Little DSS – Brandaid : to support product, promotion, pricing and advertising decisions. Little also helped develop the financial and marketing modeling language known as EXPRESS.
Слайд 10DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History
1974:
G.Davis, Prof. Univ of Minnesota, defined a MIS
as "an
integrated, man-machine system for providing information to support the operations, management, and decision-making functions in an organization." Davis's Chapter 12 was titled "Information System Support for Decision Making“,
Chapter 13 was titled "Information System Support for Planning and Control".
Davis’s framework incorporated computerized decision support systems into the emerging field of management information systems
Слайд 11DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
1978: Peter Keen, and Charles Stabell, Scott Morton:
claimed the concept of DSS evolved from “ the works 1950s-60s on DS at MIT.Herbert Simon books (1947, 1960) and articles provide
a context for understanding and supporting decision making.
Слайд 12DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
1995: Hans Klein and Leif Methlie noted:
it seems
that the first DSS papers were published by PhD students or professors in business schools, who had access to the first time-sharing computer systemIn France, HEC was the first French business school to have a time-sharing system (installed in 1967),
and the first DSS papers were published by professors of the School in 1970
Слайд 13DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
1970s: practice and theory issues related to DSS
were discussed at US academic conferences the American Institute for Decision Sciences meetings, and
the ACM SIGBDP Conference on Decision
Support Systems in San Jose, CA in January 1977
1981: The 1st International Conference on DSS (Atlanta, Georgia).
Academic conferences provided forums for idea sharing, theory discussions and information exchange.
Слайд 14DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
1978: Keen and Scott Morton’s DSS: the
1st influential
textbook on DSS analysis, design, development, implementation, evaluation:a framework for teaching DSS in business schools.
1980: Steven Alter published his MIT doctoral dissertation results in an influential book:
His research and papers (1975; 1977) expanded the framework for thinking about business and management DSS
Слайд 15DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
Alter analyzed 56 DSS and categorized them into
7 distinct types of DSS:1. File drawer systems that provide access to data items.
2. Data analysis systems that support the manipulation of data by computerized tools tailored to a specific task and setting or by more general tools and operators.
3. Analysis information systems that provide access to a series of decision-oriented databases and small models.
Слайд 16DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
4. Accounting and financial models that calculate the
consequences of possible actions. 5. Representational models that estimate the consequences of actions on the basis of simulation models.
6. Optimization models that provide guidelines for action by generating an optimal solution consistent with a series of constraints.
7. Suggestion models that perform the logical processing leading to a specific suggested decision for a fairly structured or well-understood task.
Слайд 17DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
1981: Hackathorn and Keen: identified DSS in 3
distinct interrelated categories: - Personal DSS, - Group DSS, and - Organizational DSS.
1981: Bonczek, Holsapple, Whinston: a theoretical framework for understanding the issues associated with designing knowledge-oriented DSS: identified 4 essential general components that were common to all DSS:
A language system (LS) that specifies all messages a specific DSS can accept;
A presentation system (PS) for all messages a DSS can emit;
3. A knowledge system (KS) for all knowledge a DSS has;
A problem-processing system (PPS) that is the "software engine" that tries to recognize and solve problems during the use of a specific DSS.
Слайд 18DSSs for the late 50 years: A Brief History III
– Theory Development
1982: Finally, Sprague and Carlson’s book: Building Effective
DSS was an important milestone. Much of the book further explained the Sprague (1980) DSS framework of Data Base, Model Base and Dialog Generation and Management Software. Also, it provided a practical, and understandable overview of how organizations could and should build DSS.
Sprague and Carlson (1982) defined DSS: as "a class of information system that draws on transaction processing systems and interacts with the other parts of the overall information system to support the decision-making activities of managers and other knowledge workers in organizations
Слайд 19III – DSS -Defs
ППР и ПР - разные категории: все
полученные результаты/ знания представляются ЛПР, который оценивает, насколько представленная информация
удовлетворяет соответствующим ….требованиям, заинтересов стороны.Затем принимается решение, или же дается указание продолжить необходимый поиск решения.
использование моделей это не то же самое, что и ППР. Моделирование (применение соответств. компьютерных модулей/систем) - это шаг в накоплении информации, предшествующий ПР
Слайд 20III – DSS -Defs
Иерархически участвующие в процессе ППР категории можно
представить следующим образом:
1.{входная информация и знания (проблематика, цели и
задачи; информационное обеспечение; модели,…)} 2. ⊂ {средства ППР (схемы, карты, специальные алгоритмы и адаптированные модели)}
3. ⊂ {СППР}
4. ⊂ {процесс ППР}.
Слайд 21III – DSS -Defs
Def-1: “СППР являются человеко-машинными комплексами, которые позволяют
ЛПР использовать данные, знания, объективные и субъективные модели для анализа
и решения неструктурированных и слабоструктурированных проблем”.К слабоструктурированным относятся задачи, которые содержат как количественные, так и качественные переменные, причем качественные аспекты имеют тенденцию доминировать. Неструктурированные проблемы имеют лишь качественное описание.
Слайд 22III – DSS -Defs
Def-2: СППР - это компьютерная система, позволяющая
ЛПР сочетать собственные субъективные предпочтения с компьютерным анализом ситуации при
выработке рекомендаций в процессе принятия решений
Слайд 23III – DSS -Defs
Def-3: СППР - компьютерная информационная система, используемая
для различных видов деятельности при принятии решений в ситуациях, где
невозможно или нежелательно иметь автоматическую систему, полностью выполняющую весь процесс решения
Слайд 24III – DSS -Defs
Процесс ППР представляет собой 'траекторию' в рамках
следующих границ:
диапазон технических и финансовых возможностей,
подходящий уровень детализации
(от информационного обеспечения, до уровня/деталей ПР), законодательные и другие относящиеся к делу регулирующие документы.
Специалистам в ППР ясно, что уровень детализации всех шагов в процессе ППР должен соответствовать целям и уровню ПР.
При этом вовлечение избыточных деталей может усложнять ППР, и повысить стоимость всей цепочки процесса ППР.
Слайд 25III – DSS -Defs
Существует согласие специалистов в том, что
СППР
в качестве обязательных компонент включает в себя:
интерфейс пользователя,
базу
данных, а также модельные блоки, и
критерии ППР
Слайд 26III – DSS -Defs
В качестве базовых выделяют следующие Характеристики СППР:
специализированная система для решения
слабо-структурированных задач,
мощный и дружественный интерфейс,
возможность гибкого комбинирования аналитических моделей и данных, удобный инструмент для анализа множества сценариев/альтернатив,
способность поддержки разнообразных методов принятия решений,
возможность реализации интерактивного и рекурсивного подхода при решении задач
Слайд 27Decision Support System (DSS)
intelligence:
design:
choice:
Computer
Decision
Maker
Simon (1960): structured and
unstructured decision problems (the core of the DSSs concept). Structured, semi-structured
and unstructured problems and approaches to their solvingComputer &
Decision Maker
(DSS)
Degree of Problem Structuring
Unstructured Decisions
Semi-Structured
Decisions
Structured Decisions
Слайд 28АР/ МСППР
Процесс ПР (Г.Саймон):
1. поиск информации,
2. выделение/формирование
альтернатив и критериев; 3. сравнение альтернатив (выбор
лучшей)Типовые задачи ПР: основные три ЗПР - Упорядочение альтернатив; - Сортировка альтернатив (классификация); - Выбор лучшей альтернативы
Слайд 29IV. DSSs Applications Development
R&D expanded the field of DSS application
domain
A literature surveys:
- Alavi & Joachimsthaler, 1990,
- Eom &
Lee, 1990a, - Eom, 2002,
- Arnott & Pervan, 2005
suggest the major applications for DSSs
Слайд 30IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
1971: Scott –Morton’s production planning
management decision system was the first widely discussed model-driven DSS
(but Ferguson and Jones, 1969, production scheduling application was also a model-driven DSS)
Слайд 31IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
Early versions of model-driven DSS
were called - model-oriented DSS (by Alter (1980)),
computationally oriented
DSS (Bonczek and Whinston 1981),spreadsheet-oriented, and
solver-oriented DSS (Holsapple and Whinston (1996).
Слайд 32IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
The 1st commercial tool for
building model-driven DSS using financial and quantitative models was called
IFPS (Interactive Financial Planning System):Gerald R. Wagner and his students at the University of Texasin the late 1970's by.
Wagner’s company, EXECUCOM Systems, marketed IFPS until the mid 1990s.
Слайд 33IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
1983: Expert Choice - DSS
generator for building specific systems based upon the Analytic Hierarchy
Process (Saaty, 1982),supports personal or group decision making.
Ernest Forman worked closely with Thomas Saaty to design Expert Choice.
Слайд 34IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
1978: Bricklin & Frankston created
the software program VisiCalc (Visible Calculator).
VisiCalc provided managers the
opportunity for hands-on computer-based analysis and decision support at a reasonably low cost 1987: Front-line Systems founded by Dan Fylstra: marketed the 1st optimization solver add-in for Microsoft Excel
Слайд 35IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
1988: Sharda, Barr, and McDonnell
reviewed the first 15 years of model-driven DSS research:
research
focused on model management and on enhancing more diverse types of models for use in DSS such as: Multicriteria,
Optimization, and
Simulation models.
Слайд 36IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.1 Model-driven DSS
SDSS (Spatial Decision Support Systems)
evolved in the late 1980s:
Armstrong, Densham, and Rushton, 1986.
by 1995 the SDSS concept had become firmly established in the literature - Crossland, Wynne, and Perkins, 1995.
Data-driven spatial DSS are also common.
Слайд 37IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.2 Data-driven DSS
Data warehouse, DBMSs : manipulation
of data by computerized tools tailored to a specific tasks
provide additional functionality.Data-Driven DSS with On-Line Analytical Processing (Codd et al., 1993) provide the highest level of functionality and decision support that is linked to analysis of large collections of historical data. Executive Information Systems are examples of data-driven DSS (Power, 2002).
Слайд 38IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.2 Data-driven DSS
One of the 1st data-driven
DSS was built using an APL-based software package called AAIMS,
An Analytical Information Management System.It was developed from 1970-1974 by Richard Klaas and Charles Weiss at American Airlines.
1979: Rockart’s research stimulated the development of executive information systems (EIS) and executive support systems (ESS). These systems evolved from single user model-driven decision support systems and from the development of relational database products.
Слайд 39IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.2 Data-driven DSS
1970: Joyner and Tunstall’s reporting
testing of Conference Coordinator computer software is the first empirical
study in this research area.1970: Murray Turoff’s article introduced the concept of Computerized Conferencing.
He developed and implemented the first Computer Mediated Communications System (EMISARI) tailored to facilitate group communications.
Слайд 40IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.2 Data-driven DSS
1999: W. Nylund traces the
developments associated with Business Intelligence (BI) to Procter & Gamble’s
efforts in 1985 to build a DSS that linked sales information and retail data.DSSs built using relational database technologies:
Oracle or DB2
Слайд 41IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.3 Communications-driven DSS:
use network and communications technologies
to facilitate decision-relevant collaboration, and communication - the dominant architectural
component. Tools used include: groupware, video conferencing and computer-based bulletin boards.1969: Engelbart demonstrated the 1st hypermedia/ groupware system NLS (oNLine System) at the Fall Joint Computer Conference in San Francisco. Engelbart invented both: the computer mouse and groupware.
Слайд 42IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.3 Communications-driven DSS:
1980s: academic researchers developed a
new category of software: Group Decision Support Systems – GDSS
(GroupSystems - University of Arizona; SAMM by University of Minnesota were early GDSS).1987: DeSanctis and Gallup: defined 2 types of GDSS:
- Basic or level 1 GDSS: systems with tools to reduce communication barriers, such as large screens for display of ideas, voting mechanisms, and anonymous input of ideas and preferences. These are communications-driven DSS.
- Advanced or level 2 GDSS provide problem-structuring techniques, such as planning and modeling tools. These are model-driven group DSS. Since the mid-1980s, many research studies have examined the impacts and consequences of both types of group DSS. Also, companies have commercialized model-driven group DSS and groupware.
Слайд 43IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.3 Communications-driven DSS:
1988: Kraemer and King introduced
the concept of Collaborative Decision Support Systems (CDSSs), with def:
interactive
computer-based systems to facilitate the solution of ill-structured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a team.
Слайд 44IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.3 Communications-driven DSS:
1989: (Lotus Co) groupware product
Notes - GDSS to include enhancing communication, collaboration and coordination
among groups of people.Notes had its roots in a product called PLATO Notes, written at the Computer-based Education Research Laboratory (CERL) at the University of Illinois in 1973 by David R. Woolley.
In the past years, voice and video delivered using the Internet protocol have greatly expanded the possibilities for synchronous communications-driven DSS
Слайд 45IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.4 Document-driven DSS:
Doc-driven DSSs use computer storage
and processing technologies to provide document retrieval and analysis. Large
doc DBs include scanned docs, hypertext docs, images, sounds and video…+ eg.A search engine is a primary decision-aiding tool associated with a document-driven DSS (Power, 2002). These systems have also been called text-oriented DSS (Holsapple and Whinston,1996).
Слайд 46IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.4 Document-driven DSS:
1978: The 1st scholarly article
for this category of DSS by Swanson and Culnan.
The
precursor for this type of DSS is Vannevar Bush’s (1945) article titled "As We May Think". Bush wrote "Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and to coin one at random, memex will do. Bush’s memex is a much broader vision than that of todays document-driven DSS.The World-wide web technologies significantly increased the availability of documents and facilitated the development of document-driven DSS.
Слайд 47IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.5 Knowledge-driven DSS:
Knowledge-driven DSS: suggest or recommend
actions to managers, - person-computer systems with specialized problem-solving expertise.
The "expertise" consists of knowledge about a particular domain, understanding of problems within that domain, and "skill" at solving some of these problems (Power, 2002).suggestion DSS (Alter, 1980),and
knowledge-based DSS (Klein & Methlie, 1995).
Слайд 48IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.5 Knowledge-driven DSS:
1965: Stanford University, research team
by Edward Feigenbaum created the DENDRAL expert system. DENDRAL led
to the development of other rule-based reasoning programs including MYCIN, which helped physicians diagnose blood diseases based on sets of clinical symptoms.1984: The MYCIN project resulted in development of the first expert-system shell (Buchanan and Shortliffe, 1984).
Слайд 49IV. DSSs Applications Development
IV.5 Knowledge-driven DSS:
1981: Bonczek, Holsapple and Whinston’s
book created interest in using soft/shell technologies for DSS.
1983: Huntington
established EXSYS. That company and product made it practical to use PC based tools to develop expert systems: 1992: 11 shell programs for the MacIntosh; 29 for IBM-DOS platforms, 4 for Unix platforms, and 12 for mainframe applications (National Research Council, 1999).
In recent years, connecting expert systems technologies to relational databases with web-based front ends has broadened the deployment and use of knowledge-driven DSS.
Слайд 50V. Web-based DSS
1995: WWW/global Internet provided a technology platform for
further extending the capabilities and deployment of DS: + HTML
2.0 (specifications with form tags and tables) was a turning point in the development of web-based DSS.1995: papers on using Internet for DS at the 3rd International Conference of the International Society for DSSs (ISDSS). In addition to Web-based, model-driven DSS, researchers were reporting Web access to data warehouses. By 1995, the WWW (Berners-Lee, 1996) was recognized by software developers and academics as a serious platform for implementing all types of DSS (Bhargava & Power, 2001)
Слайд 51V. Web-based DSS
1999: vendors introduced new Web-based analytical applications. Many
DBMS vendors shifted their focus to Web-based analytical applications and
business intelligence solutions.2000 was also the year of the portal. More sophisticated "enterprise knowledge portals" were introduced by vendors that combined information portals, knowledge management, business intelligence, and communications-driven DSS in an integrated Web environment
(Bhargava and Power, 2001).
Слайд 52V. Web-based DSS
Web-based DSS:
Power (1998) defined a Web-DSS as a
computerized system that delivers DS information or DS tools to
a manager or business analyst using a "thin-client" Web browser.The computer server that is hosting the DSS application is linked to the user's computer by a network with the TCP/IP protocol.
Слайд 53VI. Conclusions
The Web has had a significant impact on the
variety, distribution and sophistication of DSS, but handheld PCs, wireless
networks, expanding parallel processing coupled with very large data bases and visualization tools are continuing to encourage the development of innovative decision support applications.
Слайд 54VI. Conclusions
Trends:
Data-driven DSS will use faster, real-time access to larger,
better integrated databases.
Model-driven DSS will be more complex, yet
understandable, and systems built using simulations and their accompanying visual displays will be increasingly realistic.Communications-driven DSS will provide more real-time video communications support.
Document-driven DSS will access larger repositories of unstructured data and the systems will present appropriate documents in more useable formats.
Finally, knowledge-driven DSS will likely be more sophisticated and more comprehensive.
Слайд 55The pioneers of DSSs list:
DSSResources.com/history/pioneers/pioneerslist.html
DSS pioneers include many academic
researchers from programs at
MIT, University of Arizona, University of
Hawaii, University of Minnesota and Purdue University. The DSS pioneers created particular and distinct streams of technology development and research that serve as the foundation for much of today’s work in DSS
VI. Conclusions
Слайд 56СППР по оценке и ликвидации последствий
ядерных аварий
Чернобыльские Проекты: 1990-1996-
2001
СППР:
Модели: перенос, миграция, дозы, риск, защитные меры (контрмеры), стратегии реабилитации,
ППР FARMLAND, ECOSYS и PATHWAY
КС: MARC, UFOMOD и COSYMA;
КС, адаптированные к условиям конкретных АЭС:
RTARC, LENA_WIN, в том числе модели,
Слайд 57СППР по оценке и ликвидации последствий
ядерных аварий
СППР национального уровня:
Япония:
SPEEDI – WSPEEDI (80-90);
Россия: RECASS (Тайфун); НОСТРАДАМУС (ИБРАЭ),
ЦБОД (ИБРАЭ),
EU DSS: RODOS (Real time On-line DecisiOn support System)
Слайд 58Participation in International Projects
models, risk assessments, Radiation Protection optimization, GIS,
DSS) - Chernobyl Project JSP-2 (EU), 1993-1995 - ISTC project #150
(EU, Japan), 1995 - 1998 - RECLAIM, RESTORE, SAVE (EU-projects), 1998-2000 - ISTC #1224 (EU), (1999 - 2003) - Sabit projects (USA), 2004- 2006 - CRDF project (USA), 2005-2006 - ISTC #3549 (partner project, USA, DOE/BNL), 2006-2009 - SBIR project (CEI, BNL, USA; IATE), 2009-2010
Слайд 59СППР по оценке и ликвидации последствий
ядерных аварий
1995-2001: PRANA DSS
- Problem- and Site-specific DSS:
DB, GIS (Brynsk region),
Models, KB,
DS (CBA- Cost-Benefit Analysis)2005: J-PRANA Web-DSS
Слайд 61DEMETRA DSS: Directions of R&D
Models
Knowledge
Base
DST,
MCDA
DBs,
GIS
DSS
DS
DSS, SDSS: After Simon
(1960), Geoffrion (1983), Densham (1991):
Слайд 65 АР/МСППР: Роли субъектов в принятии решений
Член группы, принимающей решение/
готовящей решение для ЛПР. Главное в деятельности такой группы: достижение
согласия при выработке совместных решений. Эксперт: профессионал в той или иной обл., к которому обращаются за оценками или рекомендациями ЛПР или другие лица, вовлеченные в ПР. Консультант по принятию решений: его роль сводится к разумной/эффективной организации процесса ПР\ППР: помощи ЛПР или владельцу проблемы в правильной постановке задачи, выявления позиций активных групп и заинтересованных сторон, организации работы с экспертами (Facilitator). Аналитик: (может не совпадать с Консультантом): спец в области методов анализа решений и/или используемых для этого компьютерных систем ППР.
Слайд 66 Классификация проблем
все проблемы подразделяются на три класса:
- хорошо структурированные
(well-structured), или количественно сформулированные проблемы, в которых существенные зависимости выяснены
очень хорошо; - неструктурированные (unstructured), или качественно выраженные проблемы, содержащие лишь описание важнейших ресурсов, признаков и характеристик, количественные зависимости между которыми совершенно неизвестны; - полуструктурированные / слабо- / (semi /ill/-structured), или смешанные проблемы, которые содержат как качественные элементы, так и малоизвестные, неопределенные стороны, которые имеют тенденцию доминировать.
Слайд 67 Классификация проблем
все проблемы подразделяются на три класса:
- хорошо структурированные
(well-structured), или количественно сформулированные проблемы, в которых существенные зависимости выяснены
очень хорошо; - неструктурированные (unstructured), или качественно выраженные проблемы, содержащие лишь описание важнейших ресурсов, признаков и характеристик, количественные зависимости между которыми совершенно неизвестны; - полуструктурированные / слабо- / (semi /ill/-structured), или смешанные проблемы, которые содержат как качественные элементы, так и малоизвестные, неопределенные стороны, которые имеют тенденцию доминировать.
