Forecasting techniques : Mechanical extrapolation Barometric

Anticipatory indicators Compound indexes

The simplest model

Time series analysis

of present events
Statistical indicators are used - selected time series,

Forecasting techniques

in phase with the economy as a whole, which is

Anticipatory indicators reflect the future trend change in the overall economy
(the change in the cost of materials, the index of stock prices, the quantity of money in circulation, contracts or commercial agreements)

Lagging indicators - indicators, lagging behind economic development
(The price of labor, the average Bank rate, commercial and industrial loans)

Barometric methods

Forecasting techniques

the direction of changes, but nothing is said about the

Their use is very limited…..

There are two improved statistical indicators, which are often used in forecasting:

indexes:
Reflects the percentage of anticipatory indicators, which grow in a

AIDS of comprehensive study and analysis of economic phenomena

Barometric methods

Forecasting techniques

indicators:

production orders;
applications for unemployment benefits;
indicators of money supply M;
the average

The index of leading indicators characterizes the development of the economy in the next six months. As a rule, the output values of the index in the negative area for three consecutive months is an indicator of a slowing economy of the country.

Compound indexes:
Are the weighted average of several individual anticipatory indicators

a certain time
ЕХ: if there are 10 leading indicators and

If the diffusion index is > 50%, then economic recovery is expected , if < 50%, then - economic downturn

about their expectations and intentions regarding future economic activity
Forecasting techniques

cost of production and industrial equipment
financial and purchasing plans of

EX: the Index of business activity
The consumer sentiment index

Collection of opinions and reviews of goals

Forecasting techniques