Методология научного исследования 3

анализа международных процессов

и направленности зависимости;
Оценки силы зависимости.

линии тренда);

Статистический анализ (корреляционный анализ, регрессионный анализ, кластерный анализ);

Сетевой анализ

(показатели центральности и гомогенности, выявление кластеров, клик, мостов).

Treaty Obligations and Provisions;

Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research;

Vanhanen's index

of democracy.

International Studies Quarterly
Почему одни «де факто» государства сохраняются, а другие

исчезают?

Что определяет судьбу тех, которые исчезают? В каком случае они становятся жертвами насильственного присоединения, мирной реинтеграции или приобретают полное признание?

a recognized country, but is not a colonial possession;
2. seeks

some degree of separation from that country and has declared independence;
3. exerts military control over a territory or portions of territory inhabited by a permanent population;
4. is not sanctioned by the government;
5. performs at least basic governance functions, such as provision of social and political order;
6. lacks international legal sovereignty;
7. exists for at least 24 months.

al. 2004; Caspersen 2012; Caspersen and Stanseld 2011; Geldenhuys 2009;

Lynch 2004; O'Loughlin et al. 2011; Pegg 1998; Seymour 2008);
предыдущие количественные исследования (Chapman and Roeder 2007; Sorens 2012; Graham and Horne 2012);
список движений борющихся за самоопределение в базе данных Minorities at Risk;
дополнительные базы данных (UCDP/PRIO nonstate actor data; Uppsala Conflict Database; Sambanis's (2004) civil war coding notesl Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset; Federation of American Scientists (FAS) list of Liberation Movements, Terrorist Organizations, Substance Cartels, and Other Para-State Entities; Keesing's World News Archives; Lexis Nexis; Library of Congress country studies; Encyclopedia Britannica);
интервью специалистов-регионоведов.

support for the separatists, the lower the likelihood of de

facto state reintegration (peaceful or forceful) or transition to statehood.

H2: The greater the degree of state building in the de facto state, the lower the likelihood of reintegration (forceful or peaceful) and the higher the likelihood of transition to statehood.

H3: The greater the level of fragmentation in the de facto state, the higher the likelihood of forceful reintegration, and the lower the likelihood of peaceful reintegration or transition to statehood.

H4: The higher the number of government veto players, the lower the likelihood of reintegration (forceful or peaceful), or transition to statehood.

military personnel;

3. foreign military advisors;

4. training for de facto

state troops abroad;

5. safe havens.

cреднее (mean): 2.78;
медиана: 3.

court or semi-formalized legal system;
a civilian tax system;
an educational system;

a

welfare system;
institutions for foreign affairs;
a media or propaganda system;
a police and/or gendarmerie system;
a central banking system.

that claims to represent the population of the de facto

state and makes demands regarding the status of the enclave, such as reintegration into the parent state, limited autonomy, broad autonomy, no change in status, independence, (re)union with another state, or membership in a supra-national entity.
A faction can be a political party, military organization, or civic group that operates within or outside the de facto state.

that claims to represent the population of the de facto

state and makes demands regarding the status of the enclave, such as reintegration into the parent state, limited autonomy, broad autonomy, no change in status, independence, (re)union with another state, or membership in a supra-national entity. A faction can be a political party, military organization, or civic group that operates within or outside the de facto state.

executive constrains (Polity IV).

и симуляции;

Формальное моделирование;

Совмещение множества методов в одном исследовании.