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The Future for the World Market of Hydrocarbons and MENA 20 of March 2019 презентация, доклад

Содержание

MENA – key countries

Слайды и текст этой презентации

Слайд 1 The Future for the World Market of Hydrocarbons and MENA 20

of March 2019 Professor Leonid Grigoryev
www.leonidgrigoryev.com

The Future for the World Market of Hydrocarbons and MENA  20 of

Слайд 2 MENA – key countries

MENA – key countries

Слайд 3Population total, 2005-2017

Population total, 2005-2017

Слайд 4Population growth, 2005-2017 (annual %)

Population growth, 2005-2017 (annual %)

Слайд 5GDP nominal growth,2005-2017 (annual %)

GDP nominal growth,2005-2017 (annual %)

Слайд 6GDP growth, constant 2010 US$ (annual %)

GDP growth, constant 2010 US$ (annual %)

Слайд 7GDP per capita, 2005-2017 (current US$)

GDP per capita, 2005-2017 (current US$)

Слайд 8GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)

GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)

Слайд 9Export Incomes in OPEC countries and Russia, bln. $,

2000-2017
OPEC
4 gulf countries
OPEC without 4 gulf countries
Russia (oil)
Russia (oil products)

Export Incomes in OPEC countries and Russia,  bln. $,  2000-2017OPEC4 gulf countriesOPEC without 4 gulf

Слайд 10Conclusions
Oil prices of $55 - $70 helped to Global growth

restoration in 2016-2018.
Global forecast for 2040 is still open page.

May be 110 mbd. of oil extraction.
Incomes are more important than records of output.
Energy transition is inevitable, but speed and scope are not rigid.
Investments needs for transition, reducing energy poverty are huge.
China, India and Africa are still in coal…
Emission of GHG is still growing, Paris 2015 is to be reviewed soon.
OPEC+ - to reinvest export incomes into development, beware demography.

ConclusionsOil prices of $55 - $70 helped to Global growth restoration in 2016-2018.Global forecast for 2040 is

Слайд 11World Energy Transition and Future
World is undergoing Energy transition, but

still not that fast as Green people hope.
Current oil prices

are secured the Global Growth in 2016-2018.
Car are still mostly non-electric in stock and in annual sales.
Energy sector and any changes in its structure require huge investments.
One mbd a day per year = looking to 100 mbd in 2019.
Climate Change prevention V Energy Poverty and Development needs …
American oil takes quite a bite from others in 2018.
Prices are stable due to growing demand and decline of output.
Sanctions as a factor of pricing – Fall of 2018.
Stability of pricing corridor depends on coordination – to assure price wars avoidance.


World Energy Transition and FutureWorld is undergoing Energy transition, but still not that fast as Green people

Слайд 12Current situation

Current situation

Слайд 13Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1985-2017
Source: BP Stat. Review 2017

Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1985-2017Source: BP Stat. Review 2017

Слайд 14Oil Prices and World Oil Extraction, 2014-2018
Brent price
Oil extraction (right

axis)

Oil Prices and World Oil Extraction, 2014-2018Brent priceOil extraction (right axis)

Слайд 15Oil Extraction by countries, 2014-2018
Russia
USA
Saudi Arabia
Iran (right axis)
Venezuela (right axis)

Oil Extraction by countries, 2014-2018RussiaUSASaudi ArabiaIran (right axis)Venezuela (right axis)

Слайд 16Oil Production and Exports by country, 2016
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical

Bulletin

Oil Production and Exports by country, 2016Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin

Слайд 17Oil Production and Consumption, 2017, million barrel a day
Source: International

Energy Agency

Oil Production and Consumption, 2017, million barrel a daySource: International Energy Agency

Слайд 18Global Balance and Future

Global Balance and Future

Слайд 19Primary energy demand by fuel
(in 2015 and increase by

2040),
Probable Scenario
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
Structure

of primary energy demand by fuel in 2015 and in 2040, Probable Scenario

Global fuel mix is becoming more diversified, gas and RES are demonstrating the highest growth (2016)

Primary energy demand by fuel (in 2015 and increase by 2040), Probable ScenarioSource: Global and Russian Energy

Слайд 20The Structure of World Energy Consumption, 1971 and 2015, % total

consumption
Источник: МЭА

The Structure of World Energy Consumption, 1971 and 2015, % total consumptionИсточник: МЭА

Слайд 21Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1985-2017
Source: BP Stat. Review 2017

Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1985-2017Source: BP Stat. Review 2017

Слайд 22Global Energy Supply Investment in 2014 – 2035, IEA estimate

(2014), bln USD-2012, by industry, by region
Total: 40 165 bln

USD (year-2012 prices)

Source: IEA, World Energy Investment Outlook 2014

Global Energy Supply Investment in 2014 – 2035, IEA estimate (2014), bln USD-2012, by industry, by regionTotal:

Слайд 23GDP and Primary Energy Consumption, annual growth rates, 1991 -

2017
Source: World Bank, BP

GDP and Primary Energy Consumption, annual growth rates, 1991 - 2017Source: World Bank, BP

Слайд 24Oil and Gas Consumption, annual growth rates, 1991 - 2017
Source:

World Bank, BP
*Calculated index

Oil and Gas Consumption, annual growth rates, 1991 - 2017Source: World Bank, BP*Calculated index

Слайд 25Coal consumption and Electricity generation, annual growth rates, 1991 -

2017
Source: World Bank, BP
*Calculated index

Coal consumption and Electricity generation, annual growth rates, 1991 - 2017Source: World Bank, BP*Calculated index

Слайд 26Global Energy Balance mln tons, 2015
Источник: МЭА

Global Energy Balance  mln tons, 2015Источник: МЭА

Слайд 27Literature 1
Григорьев Л.М., Чапыгина А.В. «Саудовская Аравия – нефть и

развитие», «Мировая Энергетическая политика», №7, 2002.
Григорьев Л.М., Крюков В.А. «Мировая

энергетика на перекрестке дорог: какую дорогу выбрать России?» - «Вопросы экономики», №12, 2009.
Россия, Газпром и Центральная Азия-Центр: интересы и отношения. В “Russian Energy Security and Foreign Policy”, Ed. By A. Dellecker and Th. Gomart, London and New York, IFRI, Routledge, 2011, стр.147-169.
«Энергетические субсидии в современном мире». Страны «Группы двадцати», под редакцией Л. М. Григорьева, А. А. Курдина –, АЦ, 2014.
Григорьев Л.М., Курдин А.А. «Дисбаланс нефтяного рынка: технологии, экономика, политика.» - «Энергетическая политика», №1, 2015.
«Прогноз энергетики мира и России до 2040 года», Научный руководитель А.А.Макаров, Т.А.Митрова, Л.М.Григорьев и др. ИНЭИ РАН и АЦ, М. 2016.
Л.М.Григорьев , «Бочки миллиардов», «Нефтегазовая вертикаль», январь 2019, стр. 74-79.


Literature 1 Григорьев Л.М., Чапыгина А.В. «Саудовская Аравия – нефть и развитие», «Мировая Энергетическая политика», №7, 2002.Григорьев

Слайд 28Literature 2
“Domestic Debates on Climate in Russia”, L.Grigoryev, I.Makarov, A.Salmina,

“Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Human Security”, Ed. Dhirendra K.

Vajpeyi, Lexington Books, 2013, chap. 9, pp. 249-280.
2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 [online] IEA: http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2018/2018-outlook-for-energy.pdf.
Макаров И.А., Соколова А.К. «Оценка углеродоемкости внешней торговли России», «Экономический журнал ВШЭ», №3, 2014.
I.Makarov and A. Sokolova “Carbon EmissionsEmbodied in Russian trade: implications for Climate Policy” - Review of European and Russian Affairs 11 (2), 2017.





Literature 2“Domestic Debates on Climate in Russia”, L.Grigoryev, I.Makarov, A.Salmina, “Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Human Security”,

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