Слайд 1
The Future for the World Market of Hydrocarbons and MENA
20
of March 2019
Professor Leonid Grigoryev
www.leonidgrigoryev.com
Слайд 4Population growth, 2005-2017 (annual %)
Слайд 5GDP nominal growth,2005-2017 (annual %)
Слайд 6GDP growth, constant 2010 US$ (annual %)
Слайд 7GDP per capita, 2005-2017 (current US$)
Слайд 8GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)
Слайд 9Export Incomes in OPEC countries and Russia,
bln. $,
2000-2017
OPEC
4 gulf countries
OPEC without 4 gulf countries
Russia (oil)
Russia (oil products)
Слайд 10Conclusions
Oil prices of $55 - $70 helped to Global growth
restoration in 2016-2018.
Global forecast for 2040 is still open page.
May be 110 mbd. of oil extraction.
Incomes are more important than records of output.
Energy transition is inevitable, but speed and scope are not rigid.
Investments needs for transition, reducing energy poverty are huge.
China, India and Africa are still in coal…
Emission of GHG is still growing, Paris 2015 is to be reviewed soon.
OPEC+ - to reinvest export incomes into development, beware demography.
Слайд 11World Energy Transition and Future
World is undergoing Energy transition, but
still not that fast as Green people hope.
Current oil prices
are secured the Global Growth in 2016-2018.
Car are still mostly non-electric in stock and in annual sales.
Energy sector and any changes in its structure require huge investments.
One mbd a day per year = looking to 100 mbd in 2019.
Climate Change prevention V Energy Poverty and Development needs …
American oil takes quite a bite from others in 2018.
Prices are stable due to growing demand and decline of output.
Sanctions as a factor of pricing – Fall of 2018.
Stability of pricing corridor depends on coordination – to assure price wars avoidance.
Слайд 13Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1985-2017
Source: BP Stat. Review 2017
Слайд 14Oil Prices and World Oil Extraction, 2014-2018
Brent price
Oil extraction (right
axis)
Слайд 15Oil Extraction by countries, 2014-2018
Russia
USA
Saudi Arabia
Iran (right axis)
Venezuela (right axis)
Слайд 16Oil Production and Exports by country, 2016
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical
Bulletin
Слайд 17Oil Production and Consumption, 2017, million barrel a day
Source: International
Energy Agency
Слайд 19Primary energy demand by fuel
(in 2015 and increase by
2040),
Probable Scenario
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
Structure
of primary energy demand by fuel in 2015 and in 2040, Probable Scenario
Global fuel mix is becoming more diversified, gas and RES
are demonstrating the highest growth (2016)
Слайд 20The Structure of World Energy Consumption,
1971 and 2015, % total
consumption
Источник: МЭА
Слайд 21Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1985-2017
Source: BP Stat. Review 2017
Слайд 22Global Energy Supply Investment in 2014 – 2035, IEA estimate
(2014), bln USD-2012, by industry, by region
Total: 40 165 bln
USD (year-2012 prices)
Source: IEA, World Energy Investment Outlook 2014
Слайд 23GDP and Primary Energy Consumption, annual growth rates, 1991 -
2017
Source: World Bank, BP
Слайд 24Oil and Gas Consumption, annual growth rates, 1991 - 2017
Source:
World Bank, BP
*Calculated index
Слайд 25Coal consumption and Electricity generation, annual growth rates, 1991 -
2017
Source: World Bank, BP
*Calculated index
Слайд 26Global Energy Balance
mln tons, 2015
Источник: МЭА
Слайд 27Literature 1
Григорьев Л.М., Чапыгина А.В. «Саудовская Аравия – нефть и
развитие», «Мировая Энергетическая политика», №7, 2002.
Григорьев Л.М., Крюков В.А. «Мировая
энергетика на перекрестке дорог: какую дорогу выбрать России?» - «Вопросы экономики», №12, 2009.
Россия, Газпром и Центральная Азия-Центр: интересы и отношения. В “Russian Energy Security and Foreign Policy”, Ed. By A. Dellecker and Th. Gomart, London and New York, IFRI, Routledge, 2011, стр.147-169.
«Энергетические субсидии в современном мире». Страны «Группы двадцати», под редакцией Л. М. Григорьева, А. А. Курдина –, АЦ, 2014.
Григорьев Л.М., Курдин А.А. «Дисбаланс нефтяного рынка: технологии, экономика, политика.» - «Энергетическая политика», №1, 2015.
«Прогноз энергетики мира и России до 2040 года», Научный руководитель А.А.Макаров, Т.А.Митрова, Л.М.Григорьев и др. ИНЭИ РАН и АЦ, М. 2016.
Л.М.Григорьев , «Бочки миллиардов», «Нефтегазовая вертикаль», январь 2019, стр. 74-79.
Слайд 28Literature 2
“Domestic Debates on Climate in Russia”, L.Grigoryev, I.Makarov, A.Salmina,
“Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Human Security”, Ed. Dhirendra K.
Vajpeyi, Lexington Books, 2013, chap. 9, pp. 249-280.
2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 [online] IEA: http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2018/2018-outlook-for-energy.pdf.
Макаров И.А., Соколова А.К. «Оценка углеродоемкости внешней торговли России», «Экономический журнал ВШЭ», №3, 2014.
I.Makarov and A. Sokolova “Carbon EmissionsEmbodied in Russian trade: implications for Climate Policy” - Review of European and Russian Affairs 11 (2), 2017.