Слайд 1CHAPTER 6
The threat is very real
Matthew Bunn
Анастасия Пак
Эмиль Алескеров
Даниил Сивашинский
Ерохин
Михаил
Анастасия Новикова
Елизавета Тирон
Слайд 2Editor:
1)What are 3 difficulties to use WMD?
supply;
demand;
technical feasibility
Слайд 3“YES”
1) Do terrorists want nuclear weapons?
Osama bin Laden has called
the acquisition of nuclear weapons a “religious duty,” and al-Qaeda
operatives have made repeated attempts to buy the nuclear material for a nuclear bomb and to recruit nuclear expertise.
Слайд 42) Could a terrorist group plausibly get the materials needed
for a nuclear bomb?
No specific and binding global standards for
how these stockpiles should be secured exist.
The highest risks of nuclear theft today are in the former Soviet Union, in Pakistan, and at HEU-fueled research reactors around the world.
Слайд 5Could a sophisticated terrorist group make a crude nuclear bomb
if it was able to steal or buy HEU (Highly
Enriched Uranium) or separated plutonium?
EASY!!!
The most difficult part of making a crude nuclear bomb is acquiring the nuclear material
Making the most simple gun-type nuclear bomb, which involves just slamming two pieces of HEU together at high speed , is no more difficult than what people do in drug industry and for sure have been within al-Qa'ida's capabilities.
Слайд 6
Too many holes in border's security of the USA: the
length , the diversity of means of transport, the vast
scale of legitimate traffic across national borders - building an overall control system is almost impossible.
The ease of shielding the radiation from plutonium or especially from HEU
Слайд 7
The bomb with power of 10 kilotons ( a little
smaller than the Hiroshima's) than can easily be delivered in
a truck, in midtown Manhattan: 500 thousands of deaths ; $1 trillion in direct economic damage; radiation ; mass evacuations of major US cities; global effect - ten of millions of people in dire poverty; legitimacy of attacking foreign countries.
Слайд 8The Good News
First, there is no convincing evidence that any
terrorist group has yet acquired a nuclear weapon or the
materials needed to make one, or that Al-Qaeda has succeeded in pulling together the expertise needed to make a bomb.
Second, as already noted, making and delivering even a crude nuclear bomb would be the most technically challenging and complex operation any terrorist group has ever carried out.
Third, as described earlier, the overthrow of the Taliban and the disruption of Al-Qaeda old central command structure in Afghanistan certainly reduced its chances of pulling of such a complex operation
Слайд 9Fourth, there is now a very real debate, even within
the community of violent Islamic extremists, over the moral legitimacy
of the mas slaughter of innocents
Fifth, nuclear security is improving
Sixth, it is highly unlikely that hostile states would consciously choose to provide terrorist groups with nuclear weapons or the materials needed to make them
All of this good news comes with a crucial caveat: "as far as we know"
Слайд 10What is the probability of a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons?
The possibility
of nuclear terrorism Is real, but a terrorist attack using
nuclear weapons Is not inevitable and is in fact unlikely.
The possibilities of a terrorist nuclear attack include food or water contaminated with nuclear material; an attack on a nuclear power plant; an attack with a stolen nuclear weapon and etc.
Слайд 11What is the probability of a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons?
There are
2 opinions:
For terrorist group would find it very difficult to steal or
buy a nuclear weapon.
It is possible to steal, buy or create necessary materials for nuclear weapon.
Слайд 12Building the bomb
How likely is it that, having acquired the
requisite amount of nuclear material, a terrorist group would be
able to construct a nuclear device?
In practice, anyone can build a nuclear bomb, because of the lack of knowledge, time, experience and necessary materials.
But even extremely difficult tasks can be accomplished if one is motivated enough.
Слайд 13What are the motives?
Tactical aims
nuclear weapons could be used for
the prevention of harm (perhaps deterrence)
Acquiring weapons for the defense
of Muslims is a religious duty.
An attempt to justify the use of nuclear weapons on the United States by reference to Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Слайд 14Al-Qaeda wants to punish the United States and to compel
it to change its policies in the Middle East to
end its support of Israel and corrupt
Part of a defensive jihad against the West or a preventive attack, intended to prevent future attacks on Muslims.