The Manager as a Decision Maker

to opportunities and threats by analyzing options, and making decisions

about goals and courses of action.
Decisions in response to opportunities: managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance.
Decisions in response to threats: occurs when managers are impacted by adverse events to the organization.

made decision many times before.
There are rules or guidelines to

follow.
Example: Deciding to reorder office supplies.
Non-programmed Decisions: unusual situations that have not been often addressed.
No rules to follow since the decision is new.
These decisions are made based on information, and a manger’s intuition, and judgment.
Example: Should the firm invest in a new technology?

that tells how the decision should be made.
Assumes managers have

access to all the information needed to reach a decision.
Managers can then make the optimum decision by easily ranking their own preferences among alternatives.
Unfortunately, mangers often do not have all (or even most) required information.

to high
Select best
alternative
Assumes all information
is available to manager


Assumes manager can
process

information


Assumes manager knows
the best future course of
the organization

Figure 6.1

assumptions that managers have and process all the information.
As a

result, decision making is risky.
Bounded rationality: There is a large number of alternatives and information is vast so that managers cannot consider it all.
Decisions are limited by people’s cognitive abilities.
Incomplete information: most managers do not see all alternatives and decide based on incomplete information.

know a given outcome can fail or succeed and probabilities

can be assigned.
Uncertainty: probabilities cannot be given for outcomes and the future is unknown.
Many decision outcomes are not known such as a new product introduction.
Ambiguous information: information whose meaning is not clear.
Information can be interpreted in different ways.

have the time or money to search for all alternatives.
This

leads the manager to again decide based on incomplete information.
Satisficing: Managers explore a limited number of options and choose an acceptable decision rather than the optimum decision.
This is the response of managers when dealing with incomplete information.
Managers assume that the limited options they examine represent all options.

assess alternatives
Choose among alternatives
Implement chosen
alternative
Learn from feedback
Figure 6.4

first realize that a decision must be made.
Sparked by an

event such as environment changes.
2. Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action.
If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.
It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas.
3. Evaluate alternatives: what are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative?
Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate.

decide.
When ranking, all information needs to be considered.
5. Implement choose

alternative: managers must now carry out the alternative.
Often a decision is made and not implemented.
6. Learn from feedback: managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future.
Without feedback, managers never learn from experience and make the same mistake over.

an alternative is legal both in this country and abroad

for exports.
Is it ethical? The alternative must be ethical and not hurt stakeholders unnecessarily.
Is it economically feasible? Can our organization’s performance goals sustain this alternative?
Is it practical? Does the management have the capabilities and resources to do it?

rationality.
A heuristic is a rule of thumb to deal with

complex situations.
If the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor decisions result from its use.
Systematic errors can result from use of an incorrect heuristic.
These errors will appear over and over since the rule used to make decision is flawed.

beliefs about a relationship between variables and makes decisions based

on these beliefs even when evidence shows they are wrong.
Representativeness: decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small sample or one incident.
Illusion of control: manager over-estimates their ability to control events.
Escalating commitment: manager has already committed considerable resource to project and then commits more even after feedback indicates problems.

tend to reduce cognitive biases and can call on combined

skills, and abilities.
There are some disadvantages with groups:
Group think: biased decision making resulting from group members striving for agreement.
Usually occurs when group members rally around a central manger’s idea (CEO), and become blindly committed without considering alternatives.
The group tends to convince each member that the idea must go forward.

acts as the devil’s advocate and critiques the way the

group identified alternatives.
Points out problems with the alternative selection.
Dialectical inquiry: two different groups are assigned to the problem and each group evaluates the other group’s alternatives.
Top managers then hear each group present their alternatives and each group can critique the other.
Promote diversity: by increasing the diversity in a group, a wider set of alternatives may be considered.

modify, reject
Dialectic Inquiry

Alter. 1
Debate the two
alternatives
Reassess
alternatives
accept 1 or 2,

combine

Alter. 2

Figure 6.7

ability to understand the organization and environment so as to

raise effectiveness.
The learning organization: managers try to improve the people’s ability to behave creatively to maximize organizational learning .
Creativity: is the ability of the decision maker to discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of action.
A creative management staff and employees are the key to the learning organization.

Team
Learning
Encourage
Systems
Thinking

steps to build in learning:
Personal Mastery: managers empower employees and

allow them to create and explore.
Mental Models: challenge employees to find new, better methods to perform a task.
Team Learning: is more important than individual learning since most decisions are made in groups.
Build a Shared Vision: a people share a common mental model of the firm to evaluate opportunities.
Systems Thinking: know that actions in one area of the firm impacts all others.

these issues are the same as for the learning organization.
Managers

must provide employees with the ability to take risks.
If people take risks, they will occasionally fail.
Thus, to build creativity, periodic failures must be rewarded.
This idea is hard to accept for some managers.

many alternatives.
Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives

until all alternatives are listed.
Be creative and radical in stating alternatives.
When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created.
Production blocking is a potential problem with brainstorming.
Members cannot absorb all information being presented during the session and can forget their own alternatives.

to generate alternatives in writing.
Avoids the production blocking problem.
Similar

to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest.
Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed.
Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked.

having all managers meet face-to-face.
Problem is distributed in written form

to managers who then generate written alternatives.
Responses are received and summarized by top managers.
These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking.
The process continues until consensus is reached.
Delphi allows distant managers to participate.