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The Manager as a Decision Maker презентация, доклад

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Managerial Decision MakingDecision making: the process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats by analyzing options, and making decisions about goals and courses of action.Decisions in response to opportunities: managers

Слайды и текст этой презентации

Слайд 1The
Manager as a Decision Maker

The Manager as a  Decision Maker

Слайд 2Managerial Decision Making
Decision making: the process by which managers respond

to opportunities and threats by analyzing options, and making decisions

about goals and courses of action.
Decisions in response to opportunities: managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance.
Decisions in response to threats: occurs when managers are impacted by adverse events to the organization.
Managerial Decision MakingDecision making: the process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats by analyzing options,

Слайд 3Types of Decision Making
Programmed Decisions: routine, almost automatic process.
Managers have

made decision many times before.
There are rules or guidelines to

follow.
Example: Deciding to reorder office supplies.
Non-programmed Decisions: unusual situations that have not been often addressed.
No rules to follow since the decision is new.
These decisions are made based on information, and a manger’s intuition, and judgment.
Example: Should the firm invest in a new technology?
Types of Decision MakingProgrammed Decisions: routine, almost automatic process.Managers have made decision many times before.There are rules

Слайд 4The Classical Model
Classical model of decision making: a prescriptive model

that tells how the decision should be made.
Assumes managers have

access to all the information needed to reach a decision.
Managers can then make the optimum decision by easily ranking their own preferences among alternatives.
Unfortunately, mangers often do not have all (or even most) required information.
The Classical ModelClassical model of decision making: a prescriptive model that tells how the decision should be

Слайд 5The Classical Model
List alternatives
& consequences
Rank each alternative
from low

to high
Select best
alternative
Assumes all information
is available to manager


Assumes manager can
process

information


Assumes manager knows
the best future course of
the organization

Figure 6.1

The Classical ModelList alternatives & consequencesRank each alternative from low to highSelect bestalternativeAssumes all informationis available to

Слайд 6The Administrative Model
Administrative Model of decision making: Challenged the classical

assumptions that managers have and process all the information.
As a

result, decision making is risky.
Bounded rationality: There is a large number of alternatives and information is vast so that managers cannot consider it all.
Decisions are limited by people’s cognitive abilities.
Incomplete information: most managers do not see all alternatives and decide based on incomplete information.
The Administrative ModelAdministrative Model of decision making: Challenged the classical assumptions that managers have and process all

Слайд 7Why Information is Incomplete
Uncertainty
& risk
Ambiguous
Information
Time constraints &
information costs
Incomplete
Information
Figure 6.2

Why Information is IncompleteUncertainty& riskAmbiguousInformationTime constraints &information costsIncompleteInformationFigure 6.2

Слайд 8Incomplete Information Factors
Incomplete information exists due to many issues:
Risk: managers

know a given outcome can fail or succeed and probabilities

can be assigned.
Uncertainty: probabilities cannot be given for outcomes and the future is unknown.
Many decision outcomes are not known such as a new product introduction.
Ambiguous information: information whose meaning is not clear.
Information can be interpreted in different ways.
Incomplete Information FactorsIncomplete information exists due to many issues:Risk: managers know a given outcome can fail or

Слайд 9Incomplete Information Factors
Time constraints and Information costs: Managers do not

have the time or money to search for all alternatives.
This

leads the manager to again decide based on incomplete information.
Satisficing: Managers explore a limited number of options and choose an acceptable decision rather than the optimum decision.
This is the response of managers when dealing with incomplete information.
Managers assume that the limited options they examine represent all options.
Incomplete Information FactorsTime constraints and Information costs: Managers do not have the time or money to search

Слайд 10Decision Making Steps
Recognize need for
a decision
Frame the problem
Generate &

assess alternatives
Choose among alternatives
Implement chosen
alternative
Learn from feedback
Figure 6.4

Decision Making StepsRecognize need for a decisionFrame the problemGenerate & assess alternativesChoose among alternativesImplement chosenalternativeLearn from feedbackFigure

Слайд 11Decision Making Steps
1. Recognize need for a decision: Managers must

first realize that a decision must be made.
Sparked by an

event such as environment changes.
2. Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action.
If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.
It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas.
3. Evaluate alternatives: what are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative?
Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate.
Decision Making Steps1. Recognize need for a decision: Managers must first realize that a decision must be

Слайд 12Decision Making Steps
4. Choose among alternatives: managers rank alternatives and

decide.
When ranking, all information needs to be considered.
5. Implement choose

alternative: managers must now carry out the alternative.
Often a decision is made and not implemented.
6. Learn from feedback: managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future.
Without feedback, managers never learn from experience and make the same mistake over.
Decision Making Steps4. Choose among alternatives: managers rank alternatives and decide.When ranking, all information needs to be

Слайд 13Evaluating Alternatives
Legal?
Ethical
Economical?
Practical?
Is the possible course of action:
Figure 6.5

Evaluating AlternativesLegal?EthicalEconomical?Practical?Is the possible course of action:Figure 6.5

Слайд 14Evaluating Alternatives
Is it legal? Managers must first be sure that

an alternative is legal both in this country and abroad

for exports.
Is it ethical? The alternative must be ethical and not hurt stakeholders unnecessarily.
Is it economically feasible? Can our organization’s performance goals sustain this alternative?
Is it practical? Does the management have the capabilities and resources to do it?
Evaluating AlternativesIs it legal? Managers must first be sure that an alternative is legal both in this

Слайд 15Cognitive Biases
Suggests decision makers use heuristics to deal with bounded

rationality.
A heuristic is a rule of thumb to deal with

complex situations.
If the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor decisions result from its use.
Systematic errors can result from use of an incorrect heuristic.
These errors will appear over and over since the rule used to make decision is flawed.
Cognitive BiasesSuggests decision makers use heuristics to deal with bounded rationality.A heuristic is a rule of thumb

Слайд 16Types of Cognitive Biases
Prior Hypothesis
Representativeness
Illusion of Control
Escalating Commitment
Cognitive
Biases
Figure 6.6

Types of Cognitive BiasesPrior HypothesisRepresentativenessIllusion of ControlEscalating CommitmentCognitive BiasesFigure 6.6

Слайд 17Types of Cognitive Biases
Prior hypothesis bias: manager allows strong prior

beliefs about a relationship between variables and makes decisions based

on these beliefs even when evidence shows they are wrong.
Representativeness: decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small sample or one incident.
Illusion of control: manager over-estimates their ability to control events.
Escalating commitment: manager has already committed considerable resource to project and then commits more even after feedback indicates problems.
Types of Cognitive BiasesPrior hypothesis bias: manager allows strong prior beliefs about a relationship between variables and

Слайд 18Group Decision Making
Many decisions are made in a group setting.
Groups

tend to reduce cognitive biases and can call on combined

skills, and abilities.
There are some disadvantages with groups:
Group think: biased decision making resulting from group members striving for agreement.
Usually occurs when group members rally around a central manger’s idea (CEO), and become blindly committed without considering alternatives.
The group tends to convince each member that the idea must go forward.
Group Decision MakingMany decisions are made in a group setting.Groups tend to reduce cognitive biases and can

Слайд 19Improved Group Decision Making
Devil’s Advocacy: one member of the group

acts as the devil’s advocate and critiques the way the

group identified alternatives.
Points out problems with the alternative selection.
Dialectical inquiry: two different groups are assigned to the problem and each group evaluates the other group’s alternatives.
Top managers then hear each group present their alternatives and each group can critique the other.
Promote diversity: by increasing the diversity in a group, a wider set of alternatives may be considered.
Improved Group Decision MakingDevil’s Advocacy: one member of the group acts as the devil’s advocate and critiques

Слайд 20Devil’s Advocacy v. Dialectic Inquiry
Devil’s Advocacy
Presentation of
alternative
Critique of
alternative
Reassess
alternative
accept,

modify, reject
Dialectic Inquiry

Alter. 1
Debate the two
alternatives
Reassess
alternatives
accept 1 or 2,

combine


Alter. 2

Figure 6.7

Devil’s Advocacy v. Dialectic InquiryDevil’s AdvocacyPresentation of alternativeCritique of alternativeReassessalternativeaccept, modify, rejectDialectic InquiryAlter. 1Debate the two alternativesReassessalternativesaccept

Слайд 21Organizational Learning & Creativity
Organizational Learning: Managers seek to improve member’s

ability to understand the organization and environment so as to

raise effectiveness.
The learning organization: managers try to improve the people’s ability to behave creatively to maximize organizational learning .
Creativity: is the ability of the decision maker to discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of action.
A creative management staff and employees are the key to the learning organization.
Organizational Learning & CreativityOrganizational Learning: Managers seek to improve member’s ability to understand the organization and environment

Слайд 22Senge’s Learning Organization Principles
Figure 6.8
Develop Personal
Mastery
Build Shared
Vision
Build complex,
challenging
mental models
Promote

Team
Learning
Encourage
Systems
Thinking

Senge’s Learning Organization PrinciplesFigure 6.8Develop PersonalMasteryBuild SharedVisionBuild complex, challengingmental modelsPromote TeamLearningEncourageSystems Thinking

Слайд 23Creating a Learning Organization
Senge suggests top managers follow several

steps to build in learning:
Personal Mastery: managers empower employees and

allow them to create and explore.
Mental Models: challenge employees to find new, better methods to perform a task.
Team Learning: is more important than individual learning since most decisions are made in groups.
Build a Shared Vision: a people share a common mental model of the firm to evaluate opportunities.
Systems Thinking: know that actions in one area of the firm impacts all others.
Creating a Learning Organization Senge suggests top managers follow several steps to build in learning:Personal Mastery: managers

Слайд 24Individual Creativity
Organizations can build an environment supportive of creativity.
Many of

these issues are the same as for the learning organization.
Managers

must provide employees with the ability to take risks.
If people take risks, they will occasionally fail.
Thus, to build creativity, periodic failures must be rewarded.
This idea is hard to accept for some managers.
Individual CreativityOrganizations can build an environment supportive of creativity.Many of these issues are the same as for

Слайд 25Building Group Creativity
Brainstorming: managers meet face-to-face to generate and debate

many alternatives.
Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives

until all alternatives are listed.
Be creative and radical in stating alternatives.
When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created.
Production blocking is a potential problem with brainstorming.
Members cannot absorb all information being presented during the session and can forget their own alternatives.
Building Group CreativityBrainstorming: managers meet face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives. Group members are not allowed

Слайд 26Building Group Creativity
Nominal Group Technique: Provides a more structured way

to generate alternatives in writing.
Avoids the production blocking problem.
Similar

to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest.
Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed.
Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked.
Building Group CreativityNominal Group Technique: Provides a more structured way to generate alternatives in writing. Avoids the

Слайд 27Building Group Creativity
Delphi Technique: provides for a written format without

having all managers meet face-to-face.
Problem is distributed in written form

to managers who then generate written alternatives.
Responses are received and summarized by top managers.
These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking.
The process continues until consensus is reached.
Delphi allows distant managers to participate.
Building Group CreativityDelphi Technique: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face.Problem is distributed

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