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Investors and managers demonstrates risk aversion in different ways 1

People try to avoid risk2

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Слайд 1Investors and managers demonstrates risk aversion in different ways
1

Investors and managers demonstrates risk aversion in different ways1

Слайд 2People try to avoid risk
2

People try to avoid risk2

Слайд 3Why managers invest in risky projects?
3

Why managers invest in risky projects?3

Слайд 4RISK PREMIUM
4

RISK PREMIUM4

Слайд 5I want to have a compensation not only for the

use of my money, but for the risk to remain

without them!

… a higher rate of profit, if there is a risk…

5

I want to have a compensation not only for the use of my money, but for the

Слайд 6win – 1000$, defeat – 1000$
Negative expected value => investor

will not bet
6
Utility
Revenue
Utility of revenue

win
defeat

win – 1000$, defeat – 1000$Negative expected value => investor will not bet6UtilityRevenueUtility of revenue win defeat

Слайд 77
win – 1800$, defeat – 1000$
defeat

win
Revenue
Utility of revenue
Risk premium

7win – 1800$, defeat – 1000$ defeat    winRevenueUtility of revenue Risk premium

Слайд 8Business risk associated with a firm decision about investment
8

Business risk associated with a firm decision about investment8

Слайд 99
Business risk is always there - no business does not

guarantee success

9Business risk is always there - no business does not guarantee success

Слайд 10Within one business direction, the investor usually faced with higher

business risk in the newly created company

Within one business direction, the investor usually faced with higher business risk in the newly created company

Слайд 11On the other hand, the "old" company, products or methods

of entrepreneurship which are outdated, can have high enough degree

of business risk

10

On the other hand, the

Слайд 12Financial risk is determined by the financial decisions of the

firm (the risk of possible insolvency)
11

Financial risk is determined by the financial decisions of the firm (the risk of possible insolvency)11

Слайд 13The income of the company must first of all go

to debt service
12

The income of the company must first of all go to debt service12

Слайд 14Adjustment of risk
14

Adjustment of risk14

Слайд 15Discounted value of future profit
Degree of risk
Valuation model:
The present value

of the cash flow associated with investments
Estimated profit
The required rate

of profit, taking into account the level of business and financial risk

The number of periods

The amount of initial investment

15

Discounted value of future profitDegree of riskValuation model:The present value of the cash flow associated with investmentsEstimated

Слайд 16Methods of risk account :
The rate method, corrected for risk
Method

of certainty equivalent
16

Methods of risk account :The rate method, corrected for riskMethod of certainty equivalent16

Слайд 17The rate method, corrected for risk
The rate, corrected for risk
-the

required rate of profit from prospective investments after due consideration

of the existing risk

17

Ех:

The rate method, corrected for riskThe rate, corrected for risk-the required rate of profit from prospective investments

Слайд 18Method of certainty equivalent
The present value of the cash flow

associated with investments
The coefficient of certainty equivalent for period t
The

expected cash flow in the period t at risk

Risk-free rate of profit or the interest rate for calculating the value of money

The number of periods

The amount of initial investment

Free from the risk equivalent amount of cash in the period t

18

Method of certainty equivalentThe present value of the cash flow associated with investmentsThe coefficient of certainty equivalent

Слайд 19The coefficient of certainty equivalent α is a number between

0 and 1, which reflects the function of risk of

the decision maker.

It varies inversely with the degree of risk
(the higher the risk, the lower should be the factor)
α = 1 –the project is risk free
α = 0 – the project is too risky
to expect profit

Free from the risk equivalent amount of cash in the period t

The expected cash flow in the period t at risk

19

Ех:

The coefficient of certainty equivalent α is a number between 0 and 1, which reflects the function

Слайд 20And most often for any specific period:
20
Risk is anyway evaluated

by one Manager or team of experts

And most often for any specific period:20Risk is anyway evaluated by one Manager or team of experts

Слайд 21East-West Trading Company

East-West Trading Company

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