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Decisions 1

Subjective

Слайды и текст этой презентации

Слайд 1Decisions

Decisions

Слайд 2Subjective

Subjective

Слайд 3 => Objective

=> Objective

Слайд 4 To determine the content of the problem and to

set a goal
To reveal, relevant factors, constraints and dependencies

To collect data
To analyze this data
To identify alternative solutions and evaluate them in terms of costs and benefits
To choose the optimal solution

Decision-making process:

To determine the content of the problem and to set a goal To reveal, relevant factors,

Слайд 5Decision environment
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Knowledge degree of a manager

Decision environment Certainty Risk UncertaintyKnowledge degree of a manager

Слайд 6Certainty conception
Manager knows the outcome of each alternative in advance
The

conception is real for short-term period

Certainty conceptionManager knows the outcome of each alternative in advanceThe conception is real for short-term period

Слайд 7Risk conception
Manager is aware of one or several outcomes for

each alternative. Also probability of each outcome realization is known.


Some objective knowledge is presented

Risk conceptionManager is aware of one or several outcomes for each alternative. Also probability of each outcome

Слайд 8Uncertaity conception
Alternatives have variety of probable outcomes with no known

chances

Uncertaity conceptionAlternatives have variety of probable outcomes with no known chances

Слайд 9How managers can make a decision in certainty environment?

How managers can make a decision in certainty environment?

Слайд 10About the conditions of certainty once again : we know

everything and just choose a project that will bring the

greatest return

That is, we either maximize benefit or minimize costs

About the conditions of certainty once again : we know everything and just choose a project that

Слайд 11Search for options with the maximum benefit or minimum costs

is called the optimization analysis
3 optimization methods:
marginal analysis

linear programming
Incremental profit analysis
Search for options with the maximum benefit or minimum costs is called the optimization analysis3 optimization methods:

Слайд 12 Marginal analysis
We are aware of incomes and expenses for

any level of production and sales
Our task is to find

an optimal ratio of known data to maximize profits

Use the concepts of marginal costs and marginal revenue

Marginal analysisWe are aware of incomes and expenses for any level of production and salesOur task

Слайд 13Total costs
Production volume
Profit
Profit function turndown = 0
(angle of inclination)
Functions of

revenue, costs and profit
Total revenue, costs, profit

Total costsProduction volumeProfitProfit function turndown = 0(angle of inclination)Functions of revenue, costs and profitTotal revenue, costs, profit

Слайд 15 Linear programming
Helps to find the optimal variant of allocating

scarce resources between competing works
The Manager limits himself to the

statement of the problem and hand it over to the technicians who use special computer programs (linear programming)
Linear programmingHelps to find the optimal variant of allocating scarce resources between competing worksThe Manager limits

Слайд 17Incremental profit analysis
In the real world demand, revenue, production and

costs functions are unknown precisely, and are exposed to changes
The

development of the concept of marginal analysis

The basic rule of the decision: to accept the offer, increasing profits and reject - reducing

Refers to the change of costs and revenues associated with a specific solution

Incremental profit analysisIn the real world demand, revenue, production and costs functions are unknown precisely, and are

Слайд 18Only the variables exposed to change are considered. Revenues and

costs that are fixed point in the interval, are not

considered.

Short-term conception

Many managers do not use the incremental terms, and make decisions based on the average values of the total cost

Incorrect short-term solutions

Only the variables exposed to change are considered. Revenues and costs that are fixed point in the

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