DSS

controlling human mind process
4. Methods of guiding strategies
5. Methods

based on a systems approach
6. Methods of generating alternatives

problems there might be used such methods as:
- analytical;
- sequential

searches;
- heuristic searches.
What are they about? What does restrict their usage?

in model;
- high computational demands;
- narrow range of appliances;
- some

difficulties in model building (in defining objective function, weight of criteria, all constraints, etc.);
- found solution may be not the best solution in practice.

optimal decision;
- leads to human overloads and frustrations.

is a science, which investigates productive creative thinking;
2) that is

a method of learning with the help of leading questions;
3) that is theory and practice of elective choice in difficult intellectual tasks decision;
4) that is a set of special methods and rules in discovering and investigations.

specific properties:
- They are widely used in solving problems, which

do not have algorithms that guarantee finding the "right decision";
- They leave wide latitude for the manifestation of creative activity of man;
- They do not guarantee 'positive' results, though it is generally possible to obtain better results than without their usage.

entire site, and only then proceed with the check of

its components.
2. Cheap parts should be checked at first, and more expensive afterwards.
3. The units that have the same customers (competitors), and shared resources, should maintain a centralized competitive intelligence.
4. If you want to remove the harmful effect of an object or process, look in favor of harm.

way, where decisions should be searched primarily.
Restrictive (bounding) heuristics exclude

some areas of search as blind-alleys.
Absolute heuristics exclude those areas of search, which definitely lack searched elements.
Relative heuristics exclude those areas of search, which lack searched elements with high level of probability.

of controlling human mind process;
- methods of guiding strategies;
- methods

based on a systems approach;
- methods of generating alternatives.

of this group is the control and analysis of the

decision-makers thought. The method of protocol analysis (incentives to "think aloud") is a technique which is based on the idea of recording the process of decision-making. The method of switching strategies is a method aimed to remove conflict between the spontaneous and organized thinking of decision-makers. The method consists in stimulating the spontaneous judgments relating to the problem, but in a range of chosen decision strategy.

certain amount of cash in order to settle various loans

by specified dates. Unfortunately, the business plan which provided the cashflow was too optimistic, and the firm was in the unenviable position of being unable to generate the cash required to pay off the loans. Sales were falling well short of expectations and, although profit was on target, insufficient cashflow would be generated.
Question: Illustrate how lateral thinking might help to suggest insights into this problem.

intended to guide heuristics with various decision-makers to encourage the

efficient way of solving the problem.
Method of checklists is the method of psychological activation of the creative process, which leads a person to problem solving by using leading questions.
Theory of Inventive Problem Solving is a methodology of finding solutions to problems by scientific and technical creativity

six basic questions:
1 Why is it necessary?
2 Where should it

be done?
3 When should it be done?
4 Who should do it?
5 What should be done?
6 How should it be done?

at work:
Why?: to make it easier to communicate with colleagues

and get work done.
Where?: especially in meetings where staff of all grades are present.
When?: prior to the meetings taking place.
Who?: the departmental manager.
What?: tell all staff how a meeting should be conducted and what is expected of them.
How?: a booklet or leaflet circulated to all staff for guidance.

Problem Solving. "Union" technique. It presumes the following actions in

order to resolve identified problems:
- Connection of similar or related objects;
- Integration in time homogeneous or contiguous operations;
- Placing one object inside another.

Problem Solving. "Segmentation" technique. This technique, among other things, involves

the following steps:
- To divide an object into independent parts;
- Make an object sectional;
- To increase the degree of fragmentation of the object.

Problem Solving. "In advance" technique. The basis of this technique

is the following heuristic rule: "If you can not take an action with the object at the required time, then make the necessary action in advance." It presupposes the following steps:
- In advance to perform the requested action (in whole or in part);
- Pre-arrange the objects in such a way that they can be immediately involved into the action, without preparatory costs.

Problem Solving. "Improving agility" technique. This technique involves the following

solutions to the problems:
- To make the characteristics of the object changes in response to changing environmental conditions;
- To divide the object into parts capable of change and to move relative to each other;
- If the object is immovable, make it mobile.

Problem Solving. "Zoom" technique. This technique involves the following steps:
-

Change the real scale of the system;
- Change the scale of the nominal system.
"On the contrary" technique. It offers the following:
- Instead of the usual steps to make the inverse (opposite) effect;
- Rotate the object "upside down", turn it.

Problem Solving. "Copy" technique . The basis of this technique

implies the following heuristic rule: "If it is difficult or not possible to implement, the necessary actions with the object, it is advisable to use a copy of it".
- To replace the inaccessible, complex, expensive object by its simplified and cheap copy;
- To replace the object by its optical copy image.

at stimulating the creative activity of man in the process

of generating alternative solutions to the problem.
Method of focal objects presupposes the transferral of random attributes on a pulled up object.
Synectics is a method of enhancing creative human thinking, which implies special conditions that stimulate unexpected and non-stereotyped analogies and associations to the task.

up with ideas for getting customers to buy a new

brand of perfume, the following list of associated words and phrases for a rose were obtained:
■ bright
■ colourful
■ fresh
■ needs room to grow
■ needs good soil and plenty of sunshine and rain to grow
■ attracts insects

might be used to come up with insights into the

problem.
2 Suggest other associations for ‘rose’ and interpret these into insights into the problem.
3 Take another word as the stimulus, list associations and generate insights into the problem.
4 Compare and contrast the various insights that have been generated.

analysis is a method of exploring all possible combinations of

values of the attributes (parameters) of the system.

commercial loans

Author: Lawrence Goldman (November 1998)

was an Excel add-in needed?

What are the claimed benefits

of the system?

Do you anticipate any problems with the system? If so, explain them.

based in the Southeastern United States. SunTrust provides a wide

range of services to meet the financial needs of its growing customer base through approximately 700 full-service banking offices in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama. SunTrust's primary businesses include traditional deposit and credit services as well as trust and investment services. Through various subsidiaries the Company provides credit cards, mortgage banking, credit-related insurance, data processing and information services, discount brokerage and investment banking services.

on lending to the construction industry. SunTrust has recently used

Crystal Ball to perform Monte Carlo Simulations on hotel construction loans. This helps quantify the risks involved in evaluating these types of loans. Formerly, bankers would do worst case and best case analysis on construction loans when deciding on providing financing or not. Using Crystal Ball, a method has been developed to obtain a risk-adjusted return on investment. Using this finding and comparing it to the bank's cost of funds helps decision-makers determine if the profitability is worth accepting the risk of approving the loan.

using Crystal Ball. For this method, there is assumed to

be a take-out lender that will refinance the hotel construction loan provided that a required debt service coverage, DSC, is achieved. These steps involve:
Generating a pro-forma income statement on a spreadsheet including calculations for debt service coverage,

obtainable by the hotel, average occupancy rate of the hotel

and the projected floating interest rate on the loan,
Run the simulation to determine the probability that the DSC will fall within the level required by the take-out lender,
Calculate the expected return on investment, and
Compare the calculated ROI with the cost of funds to determine if the spread is large enough to warrant accepting the loan.

calculating the expected return on investment the spreadsheet "IF" function

was utilized. For the cell calculating the expected return, the following equation was used: E{R} = (Loan Amount) x Interest Rate if the DSC was greater than that required by the take-out lender, and E{R} = Liquidation Value - Loan Amount if the DSC failed to meet requirements.

second is the expected loss. This of course makes the

assumption that there would be a liquidation if the DSC was inadequate, which is not necessarily the case. However, this is the most conservative approach. The "IF" function combines the two formulas above depending on the level required by the debt service coverage upon each iteration of the simulation. This gives the analysis the advantage that when the simulation is complete, one single number for the expected ROI "pops out". This makes it easy for the decision-makers to make a determination by only focusing on one number.

helps users analyze the risks and uncertainties associated with specific

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet models. Excel models are deterministic, which means that the inputs are fixed (one value to one cell). You can only see one solution at a time. If you want to view alternative results, you need to manually change the inputs in the model. Simulation is a way to quickly generate and analyze many possible results. To run a simulation within Excel, you need an add-in program like Crystal Ball.

was an Excel add-in needed?

What are the claimed benefits

of the system?

Do you anticipate any problems with the system? If so, explain them.

so, explain them.
one figure doesn't give a transit point

(we should turn over figures in spite of seeing the transit point at once)
probability is overlooked
too little factors are in this model